Forecasts show that between now and 2050, trade in the UK’s biggest port will continue to rise to meet growing demand, from 50 million tonnes annually to 70-80 million tonnes.
Continued investment will be key to achieving sustainable growth in port trade.
Continued investment will be key to achieving sustainable growth in port trade.
The forecasts show this growth in the context of transitioning to a Net Zero UK economy.
The forecasts show this growth in the context of transitioning to a Net Zero UK economy.
The river will also become integral to light freight logistics and last mile delivery to supply London.
The river will also become integral to light freight logistics and last mile delivery to supply London.
VOICES FROM THE RIVER
We asked key partners about the future of the deep sea port, conventional and light inland freight.
• Paul Dale, Port of Tilbury
• Ernst Schulze, DP World
• John Spencer, GPS Marine
• James Trimmer, Port of London Authority
• Paul Dale, Port of Tilbury
• Ernst Schulze, DP World
• John Spencer, GPS Marine
• James Trimmer, Port of London Authority
RESEARCH FINDINGS
The outlook for Trading Thames draws on two pieces of research.
An economic impact study completed by SQW, released in Spring 2020, shows the tidal Thames to be an economic powerhouse, supporting 48,000 full time equivalent jobs, direct and indirect. The port and river complex delivers an annual gross value-added economic contribution of £4.5 billion, with investment over the five years after the survey (2020) projected to exceed £1 billion.
An economic impact study completed by SQW, released in Spring 2020, shows the tidal Thames to be an economic powerhouse, supporting 48,000 full time equivalent jobs, direct and indirect. The port and river complex delivers an annual gross value-added economic contribution of £4.5 billion, with investment over the five years after the survey (2020) projected to exceed £1 billion.
To establish a view of the port and river’s long-term prospects, we commissioned a port trade forecast, Future Trade Through the Port of London – alternative decarbonisation and growth pathways.
To establish a view of the port and river’s long-term prospects, we commissioned a port trade forecast, Future Trade Through the Port of London – alternative decarbonisation and growth pathways.
Growth in deep sea trade is expected to derive from increased volumes of unitised trade and building materials. Liquid bulk tonnages, particularly petroleum products, are projected to decline through the 2030s, with alternative fuels and feedstocks coming in over time, in smaller volumes.
Growth in deep sea trade is expected to derive from increased volumes of unitised trade and building materials. Liquid bulk tonnages, particularly petroleum products, are projected to decline through the 2030s, with alternative fuels and feedstocks coming in over time, in smaller volumes.
Serving the largest concentration of population in the UK, the port is well placed to play an essential role in the handling and supply of these new fuels, including hydrogen. Work completed for the PLA by Royal Haskoning indicates there will be strong demand for these alternatives in both the port and for the inland fleet.
Serving the largest concentration of population in the UK, the port is well placed to play an essential role in the handling and supply of these new fuels, including hydrogen. Work completed for the PLA by Royal Haskoning indicates there will be strong demand for these alternatives in both the port and for the inland fleet.
For inland waterways freight, Oxford Economics projected volumes would range between 1.9 million tonnes and 7.3 million tonnes (median 4.3 million tonnes). This takes account of a potentially major change in the composition of cargoes – with ‘light freight,’ (eg: consumer products) growing in significance, whilst bulk cargo volumes (eg: waste and building materials) remain broadly constant.
For inland waterways freight, Oxford Economics projected volumes would range between 1.9 million tonnes and 7.3 million tonnes (median 4.3 million tonnes).This takes account of a potentially major change in the composition of cargoes – with ‘light freight,’ (eg: consumer products) growing in significance, whilst bulk cargo volumes (eg: waste and building materials) remain broadly constant.
The potential to increase freight connectivity between the port and destinations in the capital, a hub and spoke operation, is seen as a major opportunity. This is allied to unprecedented interest in using the river to carry light freight.
Moving additional volumes of freight by water will, in the short-term, bring carbon reduction benefits as waterborne freight movement provides radically lower carbon emissions than road transport, cuts road congestion and improves safety. This is an attractive option for companies looking to satisfy their customers’ increasing sustainability demands.
Inland freight’s value is in getting goods into the heart of the city, where land use is mixed. The development of ‘clusters’ of industrial activity discrete from residential development can be helpful in ensuring wharf operating hours are not limited.
The development of Peruvian, Plaistow and Royal Primrose wharves, clustered with other industrial activities in Newham, is a good example of this.
Over the longer term, the adoption of cleaner fuels and propulsion systems will consolidate the river’s position as a clean logistics highway.
Cory, one of the UK’s leading recycling and waste management companies, has plans to develop carbon capture and storage at its energy from waste operation on the Thames.
The project could deliver 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 savings annually by 2030, providing an opportunity for the Thames to become a centre for shipping carbon for subsea storage, potentially benefiting other industrial operators.
The development of a vibrant Trading Thames will draw on success in all of the priority areas for action, particularly technology, the Net Zero transition and resilience. More of the river’s potential as connecting infrastructure, joining businesses and people, will be realised, providing a relief valve for increasing landside congestion.
Over time, developments in the circular economy as part of the drive for greater sustainability will have impacts on both port and inland freight trade; this is an area we will observe closely.
The potential to increase freight connectivity between the port and destinations in the capital, a hub and spoke operation, is seen as a major opportunity. This is allied to unprecedented interest in using the river to carry light freight.
Moving additional volumes of freight by water will, in the short-term, bring carbon reduction benefits as waterborne freight movement provides radically lower carbon emissions than road transport, cuts road congestion and improves safety. This is an attractive option for companies looking to satisfy their customers’ increasing sustainability demands.
Inland freight’s value is in getting goods into the heart of the city, where land use is mixed. The development of ‘clusters’ of industrial activity discrete from residential development can be helpful in ensuring wharf operating hours are not limited.
The development of Peruvian, Plaistow and Royal Primrose wharves, clustered with other industrial activities in Newham, is a good example of this.
Over the longer term, the adoption of cleaner fuels and propulsion systems will consolidate the river’s position as a clean logistics highway.
Cory, one of the UK’s leading recycling and waste management companies, has plans to develop carbon capture and storage at its energy from waste operation on the Thames.
The project could deliver 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 savings annually by 2030, providing an opportunity for the Thames to become a centre for shipping carbon for subsea storage, potentially benefiting other industrial operators.
The development of a vibrant Trading Thames will draw on success in all of the priority areas for action, particularly technology, the Net Zero transition and resilience. More of the river’s potential as connecting infrastructure, joining businesses and people, will be realised, providing a relief valve for increasing landside congestion.
Over time, developments in the circular economy as part of the drive for greater sustainability will have impacts on both port and inland freight trade; this is an area we will observe closely.
SPOTLIGHT ON
The UK’s leading port
The Thames is the UK’s largest port by volume of cargo handled. It sustains more than 48,000 full time equivalent jobs and an annual gross economic value added in excess of £4 billion.
The port is on the fast track for growth. The major project Tilbury2 is complete and operational and construction of the fourth berth at DP World London Gateway is underway. In addition, Thames Freeport is now operational and set to turbo charge growth, providing levelling up benefits for the local economy and community.
Growth at scale, driven by ‘mobile’ international funded private sector investment, will need to be matched with supporting development of landside infrastructure.
The resilience and flexibility of power generation and supply infrastructure will become ever more important as port operations increasingly switch to electric power.
The Thames is well placed to benefit from changing trading links, as the UK has now left the European Union. On short sea routes, the unaccompanied trailer operational model is well suited to post-Brexit operations. More broadly, the port’s trade has a strong deep sea, non-European emphasis, on which changed customs arrangements have no impact.
The Lower Thames and Silvertown crossings are important developments, but need to be allied to further improvements to rail connectivity and ongoing investment in local road improvements.
The port is on the fast track for growth. The major project Tilbury2 is complete and operational and construction of the fourth berth at DP World London Gateway is underway. In addition, Thames Freeport is now operational and set to turbo charge growth, providing levelling up benefits for the local economy and community.
Growth at scale, driven by ‘mobile’ international funded private sector investment, will need to be matched with supporting development of landside infrastructure.
The resilience and flexibility of power generation and supply infrastructure will become ever more important as port operations increasingly switch to electric power.
The Thames is well placed to benefit from changing trading links, as the UK has now left the European Union. On short sea routes, the unaccompanied trailer operational model is well suited to post-Brexit operations. More broadly, the port’s trade has a strong deep sea, non-European emphasis, on which changed customs arrangements have no impact.
The Lower Thames and Silvertown crossings are important developments, but need to be allied to further improvements to rail connectivity and ongoing investment in local road improvements.
SPOTLIGHT ON
Light freight
Research by WSP, commissioned by the Thames Estuary Growth Board and the PLA, has confirmed enormous potential for handling light freight, at scale.
Moving millions of parcel deliveries from the road to the river would change the competitive position of light freight movements on the Thames, delivering jobs, reducing congestion and pushing London forward on the path to reduced air and carbon emissions.
WSP’s calculations suggest that if just 3% of the almost one billion parcels destined for London a year by 2050 were moved by river it would make the mode competitive. Successful development of light freight at scale is likely to depend on the use of existing river assets, particularly piers. To turn this into reality, the PLA is undertaking pier adaptation research to establish the changes needed to enable electric delivery bikes and other options to access the pier, transiting up and down the brow linking the pontoon and the riverbank.
This is one of the WSP recommendations, others include realising the environmental and wider society benefits of river freight, and supporting the development of proof-of-concept trials, including the DHL service and CEVA trials.
Moving millions of parcel deliveries from the road to the river would change the competitive position of light freight movements on the Thames, delivering jobs, reducing congestion and pushing London forward on the path to reduced air and carbon emissions.
WSP’s calculations suggest that if just 3% of the almost one billion parcels destined for London a year by 2050 were moved by river it would make the mode competitive. Successful development of light freight at scale is likely to depend on the use of existing river assets, particularly piers. To turn this into reality, the PLA is undertaking pier adaptation research to establish the changes needed to enable electric delivery bikes and other options to access the pier, transiting up and down the brow linking the pontoon and the riverbank.
This is one of the WSP recommendations, others include realising the environmental and wider society benefits of river freight, and supporting the development of proof-of-concept trials, including the DHL service and CEVA trials.
TRADING THAMES
PLA, with partner support
Updates marked in bold
ACTION
TIMELINE
ACTION / TIMELINE
Provide cost effective services to port and river uses
Ongoing
Provide cost effective services to port and river uses / Ongoing
Continue investment in pilotage to provide consistent service reliability +98%
Continue investment in pilotage to provide consistent service reliability +98% / Ongoing; 2022 pilot trainee recruitment programme complete (14 new recruits)
Dredge main shipping channel to enhance port access and operational windows
Ongoing
Dredge main shipping channel to enhance port access and operational windows / Ongoing
Reactivate three safeguarded wharves and intensify use of already operational sites
By 2030
Reactivate three safeguarded wharves and intensify use of already operational sites / By 2030
Lead development of the light freight market on the Thames
New services established by 2025
Lead development of the light freight market on the Thames / New services established by 2025
Secure Thames boatyard development at Albert Island, Newham
Operational by 2024
Secure Thames boatyard development at Albert Island, Newham / Operational by 2024
Partners, with PLA support
ACTION
PARTNERS
TIMELINE
ACTION / PARTNERS / TIMELINE
Leverage Thames Freeport status to grow trade and level up local communities
Thames Freeport partners
Leverage Thames Freeport status to grow trade and level up local communities / Thames Freeport partners / In full operation
Invest in cargo handling facilities to serve UK and export markets
Port and terminal operators
London Gateway Berth 4 construction underway as of October 2022; Completion set for 2024
First phase of Tilbury 3 operational 2026
Invest in cargo handling facilities to serve UK and export markets / Port and terminal operators / London Gateway Berth 4 open 2025; First phase of Tilbury 3 operational 2026
Keep main port approach channels depth under review, ensuring port remains competitive
Terminal operators; if dredge advanced, regulators including Marine Management Organisation and Environment Agency
Keep main port approach channels depth under review, ensuring port remains competitive / Terminal operators; if dredge advanced, regulators including Marine Management Organisation and Environment Agency / 2025
Construction of Lower Thames Crossing
National Highways
Construction of Lower Thames Crossing / National Highways / Development Consent Order application submitted to Planning Inspectorate on 31 October 2022
Secure additional railfreight infrastructure, through Network Rail Control Period 7 (2024-29) and secure more intensive use of existing infrastructure to support low carbon, multi modal operations
Network Rail, Department for Transport, Port operators
Active advocacy through to 2024
Secure additional railfreight infrastructure, through Network Rail Control Period 7 (2024-29) and secure more intensive use of existing infrastructure to support low carbon, multi modal operations / Network Rail, Department for Transport, Port operators / Active advocacy through to 2024
Transport for London, Thames Estuary Growth Board, pier owners
2023
The UK’s leading port, central to the nation’s economy, with Net Zero emissions. A clean river, free of pollution and rubbish, supporting more sport, passengers and freight. A resilient Estuary, adapting to climate change and richer in wildlife. A more diverse Thames, providing jobs, learning and enjoyment to the whole community, and always, everyone, staying safe.